January 16, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 973 | 1 185 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +22 |
Marcus Davis overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Chris Lytle.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 970 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 139 | 1 322 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Marcus Davis receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 73 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 198 | 166 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 91 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 133 | 1 308 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Chris Lytle controlled the striking through superior volume (91 vs 73 total strikes), significant strike advantage (73 vs 59). However, since Chris Lytle lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Marcus Davis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 077 | 1 305 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 92 | 92 |
| Activity ELO | 1 096 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +35 |
Marcus Davis demonstrated solid activity levels with 92 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marcus Davis capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Lytle's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +15 |
Marcus Davis extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Lytle is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 966 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.