July 2, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 079 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Chris Lytle's 10-fight experience advantage (17 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Lytle for the expected result. Had Matt Brown pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:02 | 2:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 294 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -38 |
Chris Lytle earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:02, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matt Brown was submitted.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 49 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 193 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Matt Brown controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (25 vs 19), superior accuracy (59.5% vs 38.8%), 1 knockdown. However, since Matt Brown lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Chris Lytle's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:26 | 1:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 140 | 915 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Chris Lytle edged out Matt Brown on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:26 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 189 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -18 |
Chris Lytle demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Lytle capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 064 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -22 |
Chris Lytle extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 034 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

