March 2, 2007
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 918 | 1 245 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Matt Hughes's 10-fight experience advantage (18 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hughes for the expected result. Had Chris Lytle pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 941 | 1 337 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +4 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 980 | 1 494 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +4 |
Matt Hughes earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 21 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 918 | 1 302 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
Matt Hughes edged the striking exchanges with 13 vs 5 significant strikes, 61.9% vs 31.3% accuracy. Matt Hughes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:45 | 13:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 901 | 1 449 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
Matt Hughes controlled Chris Lytle on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 13:09 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 327 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +14 |
Matt Hughes demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Lytle's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 946 | 1 274 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
Matt Hughes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Lytle is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 936 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.