November 10, 2006
Ultimate Fighter 4 Welterweight Tournament Title Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 927 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Matt Serra's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Serra for the expected result. Had Chris Lytle pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 945 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 984 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Matt Serra receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 39 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 195 | 91 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 926 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Chris Lytle controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (195 vs 91 total strikes), significant strike advantage (42 vs 20), superior accuracy (72.4% vs 51.3%). However, since Chris Lytle lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Matt Serra's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 16 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:24 | 8:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 907 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Matt Serra edged out Chris Lytle on the ground with 1 takedown, 8:13 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 401 | 526 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +16 |
Matt Serra demonstrated extended layoff with 526 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Matt Serra capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Lytle's 401-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 952 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Matt Serra started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Lytle is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 945 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

