Chris Lytle vs Matt Serra

November 10, 2006

Ultimate Fighter 4 Welterweight Tournament Title Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

946
(-18)
Chris Lytle
Winner: Matt Serra
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Chris Lytle-18
Matt Serra+18
1054
(+18)
Matt Serra

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: -26Matt Serra: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleMatt Serra
Total UFC Fights79
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO9271 037
ELO Change-26+26
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What Happened

Matt Serra's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Serra for the expected result. Had Chris Lytle pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: -18Matt Serra: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleMatt Serra
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9451 024
ELO Change-18+18
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: -8Matt Serra: +8

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleMatt Serra
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO9841 069
ELO Change-8+8
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Matt Serra receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: -18Matt Serra: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleMatt Serra
Significant Strikes Landed4220
Significant Strikes Attempted5839
Total Strikes Landed19591
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9261 013
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

Chris Lytle controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (195 vs 91 total strikes), significant strike advantage (42 vs 20), superior accuracy (72.4% vs 51.3%). However, since Chris Lytle lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Matt Serra's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: -19Matt Serra: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleMatt Serra
Takedowns Landed11
Takedowns Attempted216
Ground Control Time1:248:13
Ground Strikes Landed52
Ground ELO9071 154
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

Matt Serra edged out Chris Lytle on the ground with 1 takedown, 8:13 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: -18Matt Serra: +16

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleMatt Serra
Days Since Last Fight401526
Activity ELO9841 075
ELO Change-18+16
💡

What Happened

Matt Serra demonstrated extended layoff with 526 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Matt Serra capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Lytle's 401-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: -18Matt Serra: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleMatt Serra
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9521 038
ELO Change-18+20
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What Happened

Matt Serra started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Lytle is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: -18Matt Serra: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleMatt Serra
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9451 024
ELO Change-18+18
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.