September 24, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Chris Lytle's 4-fight experience advantage (18 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Lytle for the expected result. Had Matt Serra pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 062 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 332 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Chris Lytle earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 153 | 124 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 297 | 298 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 172 | 133 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 223 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Chris Lytle controlled the striking exchanges with 172 vs 133 total strikes, 153 vs 124 significant strikes, 51.5% vs 41.6% accuracy. Chris Lytle capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 164 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 242 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -18 |
Chris Lytle demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Chris Lytle capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Serra's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 094 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -21 |
Chris Lytle extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Serra is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 055 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.