November 20, 2003
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 952 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Robbie Lawler's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Robbie Lawler for the expected result. Had Chris Lytle pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 961 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 932 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Robbie Lawler earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 97 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 927 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Chris Lytle controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (37 vs 30). However, since Chris Lytle lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Robbie Lawler's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:24 | 4:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 866 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Robbie Lawler landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 099 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 965 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Robbie Lawler demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Robbie Lawler capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Lytle's 1099-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 962 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Robbie Lawler started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Lytle is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 961 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.