November 16, 2007
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 935 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +22 |
Thiago Alves overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (8 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Chris Lytle.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 949 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 036 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Thiago Alves gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 128 | 90 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 88 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 956 | 1 287 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Chris Lytle controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (88 vs 48 total strikes), superior accuracy (32.8% vs 43.3%). However, since Chris Lytle lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thiago Alves's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:29 | 0:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 996 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Thiago Alves landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 60 |
| Activity ELO | 1 010 | 1 237 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +32 |
Thiago Alves demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 60 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Lytle's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 956 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +21 |
Thiago Alves extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Lytle is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 945 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.