August 28, 2009
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Tuchscherer | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 977 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Gabriel Gonzaga's 9-fight experience advantage (10 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gabriel Gonzaga for the expected result. Had Chris Tuchscherer pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Tuchscherer | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Tuchscherer | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:27 | 2:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 981 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +42 |
Gabriel Gonzaga earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:27, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Chris Tuchscherer | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 1 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 884 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -116 | +116 |
Gabriel Gonzaga controlled the striking exchanges with 34 vs 0 total strikes, 22 vs 0 significant strikes, 81.5% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Tuchscherer | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 20 |
| Ground ELO | 977 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Gabriel Gonzaga controlled Chris Tuchscherer on the ground with 1:57 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Tuchscherer | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 986 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +25 |
Gabriel Gonzaga demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Tuchscherer's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Tuchscherer | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +18 |
Gabriel Gonzaga started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Tuchscherer is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Tuchscherer | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.