Chris Wade vs Mehdi Baghdad

January 16, 2016

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1139
(+32)
Chris Wade
Winner: Chris Wade
Submission
Round 1 • 4:30

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Chris Wade+32
Mehdi Baghdad-29
971
(-29)
Mehdi Baghdad

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Wade: +24Mehdi Baghdad: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricChris WadeMehdi Baghdad
Total UFC Fights41
Experience Gap3-3
Experience ELO1 107976
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

Chris Wade's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Wade for the expected result. Had Mehdi Baghdad pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Wade: +17Mehdi Baghdad: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricChris WadeMehdi Baghdad
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 078983
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Wade: +41Mehdi Baghdad: -25

Performance Statistics

MetricChris WadeMehdi Baghdad
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:304:30
Win Type ELO1 191975
ELO Change+41-25
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What Happened

Chris Wade earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Wade: +57Mehdi Baghdad: -57

Performance Statistics

MetricChris WadeMehdi Baghdad
Significant Strikes Landed51
Significant Strikes Attempted135
Total Strikes Landed402
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 175943
ELO Change+57-57
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What Happened

Chris Wade controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 2 total strikes, 38.5% vs 20.0% accuracy. Chris Wade capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Wade: +57Mehdi Baghdad: -57

Performance Statistics

MetricChris WadeMehdi Baghdad
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted20
Ground Control Time4:160:00
Ground Strikes Landed41
Ground ELO1 265943
ELO Change+57-57
💡

What Happened

Chris Wade dominated Mehdi Baghdad on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:16 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Wade: +19Mehdi Baghdad: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricChris WadeMehdi Baghdad
Days Since Last Fight226N/A
Activity ELO1 123985
ELO Change+19-15
💡

What Happened

Chris Wade demonstrated standard activity with 226 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Chris Wade capitalized on this activity level, while Mehdi Baghdad's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Wade: +23Mehdi Baghdad: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricChris WadeMehdi Baghdad
Win Streak40
Win Streak ELO1 097983
ELO Change+23-17
💡

What Happened

Chris Wade extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mehdi Baghdad is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Wade: +17Mehdi Baghdad: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricChris WadeMehdi Baghdad
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 078983
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.