January 16, 2016
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Wade | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 107 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Chris Wade's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Wade for the expected result. Had Mehdi Baghdad pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Wade | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 078 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Wade | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:30 | 4:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 191 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -25 |
Chris Wade earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Chris Wade | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 175 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Chris Wade controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 2 total strikes, 38.5% vs 20.0% accuracy. Chris Wade capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Wade | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:16 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 265 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Chris Wade dominated Mehdi Baghdad on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:16 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chris Wade | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 226 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 123 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Chris Wade demonstrated standard activity with 226 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Chris Wade capitalized on this activity level, while Mehdi Baghdad's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Wade | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -17 |
Chris Wade extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mehdi Baghdad is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Wade | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 078 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

