April 7, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 346 | 1 328 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +39 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (12 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 304 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:13 | 3:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 568 | 1 659 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +101 |
Gegard Mousasi gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 93 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 428 | 1 624 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Gegard Mousasi controlled the striking exchanges with 55 vs 18 total strikes, 49 vs 13 significant strikes. Gegard Mousasi capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:21 | 0:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 395 | 1 420 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Gegard Mousasi did not secure a significant ground advantage against Chris Weidman on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:38 of control time, 2 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 316 | 1 428 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +35 |
Gegard Mousasi demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gegard Mousasi capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Weidman's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 350 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +62 |
Gegard Mousasi continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Chris Weidman's now at 0.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 132 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.