November 2, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 332 | 1 337 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +43 |
Jacare Souza overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Chris Weidman.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 283 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:46 | 2:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 563 | 1 669 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +92 |
Jacare Souza gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 68 | 74 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 193 | 132 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 76 | 100 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 370 | 1 545 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Jacare Souza controlled the striking exchanges with 100 vs 76 total strikes, 74 vs 68 significant strikes, 56.1% vs 35.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jacare Souza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 503 | 1 502 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Jacare Souza landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 470 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 334 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +48 |
Jacare Souza demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jacare Souza capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Weidman's 470-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 331 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +35 |
Jacare Souza started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Weidman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 130 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.