July 21, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 370 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (13 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 315 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:45 | 3:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 609 | 1 415 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -27 |
Chris Weidman earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:45, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kelvin Gastelum was submitted.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 47 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 75 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 460 | 1 332 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Chris Weidman controlled the striking exchanges with 75 vs 28 total strikes, 36 vs 26 significant strikes. Chris Weidman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:34 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 536 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | +141 | -141 |
Chris Weidman dominated Kelvin Gastelum on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 7:34 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 362 | 1 254 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -18 |
Chris Weidman demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Weidman capitalized on this activity level, while Kelvin Gastelum's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 363 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -11 |
Chris Weidman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kelvin Gastelum is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Weidman | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 153 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.