February 29, 2008
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Wilson | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 985 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Jon Fitch's 7-fight experience advantage (8 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jon Fitch for the expected result. Had Chris Wilson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Wilson | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 987 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Wilson | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 989 | 1 334 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Jon Fitch earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chris Wilson | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 52 | 76 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 131 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 993 | 1 439 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
Jon Fitch dominated the striking exchanges with 131 vs 32 total strikes, 40 vs 22 significant strikes, 52.6% vs 42.3% accuracy. Jon Fitch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Wilson | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 7:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 988 | 1 475 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Jon Fitch dominated Chris Wilson on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 7:58 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Wilson | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 993 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +12 |
Jon Fitch demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jon Fitch capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Wilson's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Wilson | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 8 |
| Win Streak ELO | 991 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +31 |
Jon Fitch continued building serious momentum with a 8-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Chris Wilson's now at 0.
| Metric | Chris Wilson | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 987 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.