July 26, 2024
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Christian Leroy Duncan | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 066 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Gregory Rodrigues's 4-fight experience advantage (9 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gregory Rodrigues for the expected result. Had Christian Leroy Duncan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Christian Leroy Duncan | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Christian Leroy Duncan | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 179 | 1 382 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Gregory Rodrigues earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Christian Leroy Duncan | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 48 | 79 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 78 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 181 | 1 299 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Gregory Rodrigues controlled the striking exchanges with 78 vs 53 total strikes, 45 vs 29 significant strikes. Gregory Rodrigues capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Christian Leroy Duncan | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:45 | 8:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 000 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Gregory Rodrigues dominated Christian Leroy Duncan on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 8:20 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Christian Leroy Duncan | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 073 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +25 |
Gregory Rodrigues demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gregory Rodrigues capitalized on this activity level, while Christian Leroy Duncan's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Christian Leroy Duncan | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Gregory Rodrigues extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Christian Leroy Duncan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Christian Leroy Duncan | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 019 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.