June 25, 2011
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 985 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Matt Mitrione's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Mitrione for the expected result. Had Christian Morecraft pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:28 | 4:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 027 | 1 286 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +42 |
Matt Mitrione gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 90 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 45 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 3 |
| Striking ELO | 903 | 1 289 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Matt Mitrione dominated the striking exchanges with 45 vs 22 total strikes, 37 vs 17 significant strikes, 46.3% vs 18.9% accuracy, including 3 devastating knockdowns. Matt Mitrione capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:49 | 0:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 087 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Matt Mitrione landed 3 knockdowns followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 92 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +25 |
Matt Mitrione demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Mitrione capitalized on this activity level, while Christian Morecraft's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +30 |
Matt Mitrione continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Christian Morecraft's now at 0.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

