August 6, 2010
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 972 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Stefan Struve's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stefan Struve for the expected result. Had Christian Morecraft pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:22 | 0:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 967 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +67 |
Stefan Struve gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 72 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 895 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -105 | +105 |
Christian Morecraft controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (60 vs 12 total strikes), significant strike advantage (36 vs 11). However, since Christian Morecraft lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Stefan Struve's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:45 | 0:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 31 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 982 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Stefan Struve landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 129 |
| Activity ELO | 988 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +25 |
Stefan Struve demonstrated solid activity levels with 129 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Stefan Struve capitalized on this activity level, while Christian Morecraft's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Stefan Struve started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Christian Morecraft is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Christian Morecraft | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.