July 12, 2024
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Christian Rodriguez | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 066 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Julian Erosa's 9-fight experience advantage (15 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Julian Erosa for the expected result. Had Christian Rodriguez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Christian Rodriguez | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Christian Rodriguez | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:49 | 4:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 110 | 1 230 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +67 |
Julian Erosa earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:49, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Christian Rodriguez | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 142 | 934 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Julian Erosa slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Julian Erosa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Christian Rodriguez | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:19 | 0:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 124 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Julian Erosa controlled Christian Rodriguez on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:41 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Christian Rodriguez | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 087 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +54 |
Julian Erosa demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Julian Erosa capitalized on this activity level, while Christian Rodriguez's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Christian Rodriguez | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 065 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +28 |
Julian Erosa extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Christian Rodriguez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Christian Rodriguez | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.