January 30, 2009
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 934 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 013 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jake O'Brien receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 179 | 84 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 835 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Christian Wellisch controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (46 vs 25). However, since Christian Wellisch lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jake O'Brien's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 5:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 923 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Jake O'Brien landed 1 knockdown followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 253 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 005 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Jake O'Brien demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jake O'Brien capitalized on this activity level, while Christian Wellisch's 253-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Jake O'Brien started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Christian Wellisch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.