September 21, 2007
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Scott Junk |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 037 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Christian Wellisch's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Christian Wellisch for the expected result. Had Scott Junk pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Scott Junk |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Scott Junk |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:19 | 3:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 073 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -42 |
Christian Wellisch earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:19, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Scott Junk |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 959 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Scott Junk controlled the striking through superior volume (30 vs 7 total strikes), significant strike advantage (17 vs 6). However, since Scott Junk lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Christian Wellisch's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Scott Junk |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:48 | 1:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 060 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Christian Wellisch controlled Scott Junk on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:48 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Scott Junk |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 266 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 047 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Christian Wellisch demonstrated standard activity with 266 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Christian Wellisch capitalized on this activity level, while Scott Junk's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Scott Junk |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 028 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Christian Wellisch extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Scott Junk is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Christian Wellisch | Scott Junk |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.