January 21, 2022
UFC Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ciryl Gane | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 327 | 1 440 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Francis Ngannou's 6-fight experience advantage (14 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francis Ngannou for the expected result. Had Ciryl Gane pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ciryl Gane | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 143 | 1 333 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +39 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Francis Ngannou captured the UFC Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Ciryl Gane | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 561 | 1 938 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Francis Ngannou earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ciryl Gane | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 104 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 79 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 560 | 1 946 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +4 |
Ciryl Gane controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (63 vs 43), superior accuracy (69.2% vs 41.3%). However, since Ciryl Gane lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Francis Ngannou's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ciryl Gane | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:51 | 8:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 327 | 1 565 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Francis Ngannou dominated Ciryl Gane on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 8:29 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ciryl Gane | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 301 |
| Activity ELO | 1 439 | 1 464 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Francis Ngannou demonstrated standard activity with 301 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Francis Ngannou capitalized on this activity level, while Ciryl Gane's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ciryl Gane | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 261 | 1 363 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +45 |
Francis Ngannou continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Ciryl Gane's now at 0.
| Metric | Ciryl Gane | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 135 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.