July 31, 2015
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Claudia Gadelha | Jessica Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 032 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -31 |
Claudia Gadelha's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Claudia Gadelha for the expected result. Had Jessica Aguilar pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Claudia Gadelha | Jessica Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Claudia Gadelha | Jessica Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 070 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Claudia Gadelha earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Claudia Gadelha | Jessica Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 111 | 70 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 248 | 189 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 121 | 88 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 022 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Claudia Gadelha controlled the striking exchanges with 121 vs 88 total strikes, 111 vs 70 significant strikes. Claudia Gadelha capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Claudia Gadelha | Jessica Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:36 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 138 | 935 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -65 |
Claudia Gadelha controlled Jessica Aguilar on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 2:36 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Claudia Gadelha | Jessica Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 231 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 026 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Claudia Gadelha demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Claudia Gadelha capitalized on this activity level, while Jessica Aguilar's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Claudia Gadelha | Jessica Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Claudia Gadelha started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jessica Aguilar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Claudia Gadelha | Jessica Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.