July 28, 2023
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Claudio Ribeiro | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Roman Kopylov's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roman Kopylov for the expected result. Had Claudio Ribeiro pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Claudio Ribeiro | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Claudio Ribeiro | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:33 | 0:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 039 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +63 |
Roman Kopylov gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Claudio Ribeiro | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 59 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 017 | 1 235 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Roman Kopylov controlled the striking exchanges with 76.2% vs 54.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Roman Kopylov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Claudio Ribeiro | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:16 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 950 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Claudio Ribeiro | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 018 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Roman Kopylov demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Roman Kopylov capitalized on this activity level, while Claudio Ribeiro's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Claudio Ribeiro | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Roman Kopylov extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Claudio Ribeiro is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Claudio Ribeiro | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

