August 22, 2014
Catch Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Collard | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Max Holloway's 8-fight experience advantage (9 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Max Holloway for the expected result. Had Clay Collard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Collard | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Collard | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:47 | 3:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 979 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +42 |
Max Holloway gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Collard | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 70 | 124 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 209 | 204 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 137 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 969 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Max Holloway dominated the striking exchanges with 137 vs 73 total strikes, 124 vs 70 significant strikes, 60.8% vs 33.5% accuracy. Max Holloway capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Collard | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:49 | 2:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 40 |
| Ground ELO | 950 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Max Holloway controlled Clay Collard on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:34 of control time, 40 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Collard | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +32 |
Max Holloway demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Max Holloway capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Collard's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Collard | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Max Holloway extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Collard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Collard | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.