Clay Guida vs Diego Sanchez

June 19, 2009

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1123
(-20)
Clay Guida
Winner: Diego Sanchez
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Clay Guida-20
Diego Sanchez+23
1268
(+23)
Diego Sanchez

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -23Diego Sanchez: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDiego Sanchez
Total UFC Fights912
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO1 0661 206
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

Diego Sanchez's 3-fight experience advantage (12 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Diego Sanchez for the expected result. Had Clay Guida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -17Diego Sanchez: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDiego Sanchez
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0381 143
ELO Change-17+17
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -5Diego Sanchez: +5

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDiego Sanchez
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 1491 377
ELO Change-5+5
💡

What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Diego Sanchez receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -36Diego Sanchez: +36

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDiego Sanchez
Significant Strikes Landed2968
Significant Strikes Attempted96144
Total Strikes Landed5780
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 1571 412
ELO Change-36+36
💡

What Happened

Diego Sanchez controlled the striking exchanges with 80 vs 57 total strikes, 68 vs 29 significant strikes, 47.2% vs 30.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Diego Sanchez capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -32Diego Sanchez: +32

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDiego Sanchez
Takedowns Landed21
Takedowns Attempted72
Ground Control Time7:561:06
Ground Strikes Landed1017
Ground ELO1 3221 351
ELO Change-32+32
💡

What Happened

Diego Sanchez did not secure a significant ground advantage against Clay Guida on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:06 of control time, 17 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -15Diego Sanchez: +37

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDiego Sanchez
Days Since Last Fight140119
Activity ELO1 1551 311
ELO Change-15+37
💡

What Happened

Diego Sanchez demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Diego Sanchez capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -15Diego Sanchez: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDiego Sanchez
Win Streak04
Win Streak ELO1 0621 204
ELO Change-15+21
💡

What Happened

Diego Sanchez extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -17Diego Sanchez: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDiego Sanchez
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0381 142
ELO Change-17+17
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.