June 19, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 066 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Diego Sanchez's 3-fight experience advantage (12 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Diego Sanchez for the expected result. Had Clay Guida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 038 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 149 | 1 377 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +5 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Diego Sanchez receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 68 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 96 | 144 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 157 | 1 412 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Diego Sanchez controlled the striking exchanges with 80 vs 57 total strikes, 68 vs 29 significant strikes, 47.2% vs 30.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Diego Sanchez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:56 | 1:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 1 322 | 1 351 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Diego Sanchez did not secure a significant ground advantage against Clay Guida on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:06 of control time, 17 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 155 | 1 311 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +37 |
Diego Sanchez demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Diego Sanchez capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 062 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +21 |
Diego Sanchez extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 038 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

