Clay Guida vs Din Thomas

January 24, 2007

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1023
(-25)
Clay Guida
Winner: Din Thomas
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Clay Guida-25
Din Thomas+30
1080
(+30)
Din Thomas

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -29Din Thomas: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDin Thomas
Total UFC Fights26
Experience Gap-44
Experience ELO9921 076
ELO Change-29+29
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What Happened

Din Thomas's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Din Thomas for the expected result. Had Clay Guida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -21Din Thomas: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDin Thomas
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0001 043
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -42Din Thomas: +42

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDin Thomas
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 0231 107
ELO Change-42+42
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What Happened

Din Thomas earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -22Din Thomas: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDin Thomas
Significant Strikes Landed3333
Significant Strikes Attempted105113
Total Strikes Landed9351
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0251 050
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

Clay Guida controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (93 vs 51 total strikes). However, since Clay Guida lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Din Thomas's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -24Din Thomas: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDin Thomas
Takedowns Landed50
Takedowns Attempted160
Ground Control Time6:530:48
Ground Strikes Landed192
Ground ELO1 1401 130
ELO Change-24+24
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What Happened

Din Thomas did not secure a significant ground advantage against Clay Guida on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:48 of control time, 2 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -17Din Thomas: +52

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDin Thomas
Days Since Last Fight10475
Activity ELO1 0041 132
ELO Change-17+52
💡

What Happened

Din Thomas demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 75 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Din Thomas capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 104-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -20Din Thomas: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDin Thomas
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO1 0031 059
ELO Change-20+27
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What Happened

Din Thomas extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -21Din Thomas: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaDin Thomas
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0001 043
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.