January 24, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Din Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 992 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Din Thomas's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Din Thomas for the expected result. Had Clay Guida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Din Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Din Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 023 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Din Thomas earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Din Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 105 | 113 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 93 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 025 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Clay Guida controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (93 vs 51 total strikes). However, since Clay Guida lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Din Thomas's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Din Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 16 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:53 | 0:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 140 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Din Thomas did not secure a significant ground advantage against Clay Guida on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:48 of control time, 2 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Din Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 104 | 75 |
| Activity ELO | 1 004 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +52 |
Din Thomas demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 75 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Din Thomas capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 104-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Din Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +27 |
Din Thomas extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Din Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

