June 21, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Gray Maynard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 099 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Gray Maynard overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Clay Guida.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Gray Maynard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 056 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Gray Maynard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 234 | 1 330 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Gray Maynard receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Gray Maynard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 321 | 225 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 52 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 127 | 1 281 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Gray Maynard slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Gray Maynard capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Gray Maynard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 1:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 336 | 1 533 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Gray Maynard controlled Clay Guida on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:10 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Gray Maynard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 223 | 258 |
| Activity ELO | 1 208 | 1 324 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Gray Maynard demonstrated standard activity with 258 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Gray Maynard capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 223-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Gray Maynard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +13 |
Gray Maynard started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Gray Maynard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 056 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.