January 25, 2013
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Hatsu Hioki |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 129 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Clay Guida's 13-fight experience advantage (17 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Hatsu Hioki pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Hatsu Hioki |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 075 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Hatsu Hioki |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 239 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Clay Guida receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Hatsu Hioki |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 112 | 99 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 74 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 144 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Hatsu Hioki controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (74 vs 40 total strikes), significant strike advantage (41 vs 26), superior accuracy (41.4% vs 23.2%). However, since Hatsu Hioki lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Clay Guida's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Hatsu Hioki |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:33 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 359 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Clay Guida controlled Hatsu Hioki on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 8:33 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Hatsu Hioki |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 219 | 219 |
| Activity ELO | 1 223 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -12 |
Clay Guida demonstrated standard activity with 219 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Hatsu Hioki's 219-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Hatsu Hioki |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 116 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hatsu Hioki is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Hatsu Hioki |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 075 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.