August 2, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 28 | 33 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 084 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Jim Miller's 5-fight experience advantage (33 vs 28 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Clay Guida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 054 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:58 | 0:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 257 | 1 359 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +103 |
Jim Miller locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:58 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 217 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Clay Guida controlled the striking through superior accuracy (40.0% vs 25.0%). However, since Clay Guida lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jim Miller's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 201 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 199 | 1 348 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +38 |
Jim Miller demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 092 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Jim Miller extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 055 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

