Clay Guida vs Jim Miller

August 2, 2019

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1145
(-31)
Clay Guida
Winner: Jim Miller
Submission
Round 1 • 0:58

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Clay Guida-31
Jim Miller+41
1183
(+41)
Jim Miller

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -33Jim Miller: +33

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaJim Miller
Total UFC Fights2833
Experience Gap-55
Experience ELO1 0841 133
ELO Change-33+33
💡

What Happened

Jim Miller's 5-fight experience advantage (33 vs 28 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Clay Guida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -21Jim Miller: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaJim Miller
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0541 088
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -48Jim Miller: +103

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaJim Miller
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish0:580:58
Win Type ELO1 2571 359
ELO Change-48+103
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What Happened

Jim Miller locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:58 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -29Jim Miller: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaJim Miller
Significant Strikes Landed22
Significant Strikes Attempted58
Total Strikes Landed22
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 2171 129
ELO Change-29+29
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What Happened

Clay Guida controlled the striking through superior accuracy (40.0% vs 25.0%). However, since Clay Guida lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jim Miller's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -58Jim Miller: +58

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaJim Miller
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:110:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 2011 175
ELO Change-58+58
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What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -15Jim Miller: +38

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaJim Miller
Days Since Last Fight8498
Activity ELO1 1991 348
ELO Change-15+38
💡

What Happened

Jim Miller demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -20Jim Miller: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaJim Miller
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO1 0921 146
ELO Change-20+25
💡

What Happened

Jim Miller extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -22Jim Miller: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaJim Miller
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0551 084
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.