November 10, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 25 | 25 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 121 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -22 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (25 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 072 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:07 | 1:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 319 | 1 253 |
| ELO Change | +136 | -57 |
Clay Guida earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:07, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 279 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +175 | -175 |
Clay Guida controlled the striking exchanges with 31 vs 1 total strikes, 24 vs 1 significant strikes, 60.0% vs 14.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:33 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 287 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Clay Guida controlled Joe Lauzon on the ground with 0:33 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 204 |
| Activity ELO | 1 215 | 1 185 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -23 |
Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Lauzon's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 113 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Clay Guida extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Lauzon is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 072 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.