October 13, 2006
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Justin James |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Justin James |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Justin James |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:42 | 4:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 065 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -42 |
Clay Guida earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:42, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Justin James was submitted.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Justin James |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 52 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 93 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 047 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Clay Guida dominated the striking exchanges with 93 vs 28 total strikes, 26 vs 13 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 36.1% accuracy. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Justin James |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:32 | 0:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 23 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 164 | 836 |
| ELO Change | +164 | -164 |
Clay Guida dominated Justin James on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:32 of control time, 23 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Justin James |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Clay Guida demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Justin James's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Justin James |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin James is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Justin James |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

