Clay Guida vs Kenny Florian

December 11, 2009

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1101
(-22)
Clay Guida
Winner: Kenny Florian
Submission
Round 2 • 2:19

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Clay Guida-22
Kenny Florian+26
1280
(+26)
Kenny Florian

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -21Kenny Florian: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaKenny Florian
Total UFC Fights1013
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO1 0451 204
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

Kenny Florian's 3-fight experience advantage (13 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kenny Florian for the expected result. Had Clay Guida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -16Kenny Florian: +16

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaKenny Florian
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0221 142
ELO Change-16+16
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -17Kenny Florian: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaKenny Florian
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish2:192:19
Win Type ELO1 1321 408
ELO Change-17+27
💡

What Happened

Kenny Florian earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:19, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Clay Guida was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -34Kenny Florian: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaKenny Florian
Significant Strikes Landed1322
Significant Strikes Attempted6978
Total Strikes Landed1443
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 1231 402
ELO Change-34+34
💡

What Happened

Kenny Florian controlled the striking exchanges with 43 vs 14 total strikes, 22 vs 13 significant strikes, 28.2% vs 18.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Kenny Florian capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -49Kenny Florian: +49

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaKenny Florian
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted32
Ground Control Time0:431:05
Ground Strikes Landed22
Ground ELO1 2731 417
ELO Change-49+49
💡

What Happened

Kenny Florian controlled Clay Guida on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:05 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -13Kenny Florian: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaKenny Florian
Days Since Last Fight176127
Activity ELO1 1421 313
ELO Change-13+27
💡

What Happened

Kenny Florian demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kenny Florian capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -14Kenny Florian: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaKenny Florian
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0481 205
ELO Change-14+15
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What Happened

Kenny Florian started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -15Kenny Florian: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaKenny Florian
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0231 147
ELO Change-15+15
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.