December 11, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 045 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Kenny Florian's 3-fight experience advantage (13 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kenny Florian for the expected result. Had Clay Guida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:19 | 2:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 132 | 1 408 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +27 |
Kenny Florian earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:19, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Clay Guida was submitted.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 69 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 123 | 1 402 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Kenny Florian controlled the striking exchanges with 43 vs 14 total strikes, 22 vs 13 significant strikes, 28.2% vs 18.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Kenny Florian capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 1:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 273 | 1 417 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Kenny Florian controlled Clay Guida on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:05 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 142 | 1 313 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +27 |
Kenny Florian demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kenny Florian capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 048 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +15 |
Kenny Florian started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

