June 19, 2020
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 29 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 17 | -17 |
| Experience ELO | 1 050 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +72 |
King Green overcame a 17-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 29 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Clay Guida.
| Metric | Clay Guida | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 030 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 198 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
King Green earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 85 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 65 | 150 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 90 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 144 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +73 |
King Green dominated the striking exchanges with 90 vs 27 total strikes, 85 vs 23 significant strikes, 56.7% vs 35.4% accuracy. King Green capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:32 | 1:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 145 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
King Green edged out Clay Guida on the ground with 2 takedowns, 1:11 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 322 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 172 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +33 |
King Green demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, King Green capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 322-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 067 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
King Green started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 031 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.