Clay Guida vs Leonardo Santos

December 3, 2021

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1148
(+45)
Clay Guida
Winner: Clay Guida
Submission
Round 2 • 1:21

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Clay Guida+45
Leonardo Santos-38
1135
(-38)
Leonardo Santos

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +42Leonardo Santos: -42

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaLeonardo Santos
Total UFC Fights3210
Experience Gap22-22
Experience ELO1 0871 129
ELO Change+42-42
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What Happened

Clay Guida's 22-fight experience advantage (32 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Leonardo Santos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +26Leonardo Santos: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaLeonardo Santos
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0531 081
ELO Change+26-26
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +74Leonardo Santos: -48

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaLeonardo Santos
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:211:21
Win Type ELO1 2931 221
ELO Change+74-48
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What Happened

Clay Guida earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:21, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Leonardo Santos was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +26Leonardo Santos: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaLeonardo Santos
Significant Strikes Landed1841
Significant Strikes Attempted5060
Total Strikes Landed5065
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 1561 186
ELO Change+26-26
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What Happened

Leonardo Santos controlled the striking through superior volume (65 vs 50 total strikes), significant strike advantage (41 vs 18), superior accuracy (68.3% vs 36.0%), 1 knockdown. However, since Leonardo Santos lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Clay Guida's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +84Leonardo Santos: -84

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaLeonardo Santos
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted70
Ground Control Time2:091:01
Ground Strikes Landed1112
Ground ELO1 2321 124
ELO Change+84-84
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What Happened

Clay Guida controlled Leonardo Santos on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:09 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +49Leonardo Santos: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaLeonardo Santos
Days Since Last Fight106259
Activity ELO1 2161 127
ELO Change+49-20
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What Happened

Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Leonardo Santos's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +29Leonardo Santos: -27

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaLeonardo Santos
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 0931 134
ELO Change+29-27
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What Happened

Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Leonardo Santos is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +26Leonardo Santos: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaLeonardo Santos
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0531 081
ELO Change+26-26
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.