December 3, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Leonardo Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 32 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 22 | -22 |
| Experience ELO | 1 087 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Clay Guida's 22-fight experience advantage (32 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Leonardo Santos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Leonardo Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 053 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Leonardo Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:21 | 1:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 293 | 1 221 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -48 |
Clay Guida earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:21, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Leonardo Santos was submitted.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Leonardo Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 60 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 156 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Leonardo Santos controlled the striking through superior volume (65 vs 50 total strikes), significant strike advantage (41 vs 18), superior accuracy (68.3% vs 36.0%), 1 knockdown. However, since Leonardo Santos lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Clay Guida's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Leonardo Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:09 | 1:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 232 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
Clay Guida controlled Leonardo Santos on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:09 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Leonardo Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 1 216 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -20 |
Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Leonardo Santos's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Leonardo Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 093 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -27 |
Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Leonardo Santos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Leonardo Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 053 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

