September 16, 2008
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 050 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Clay Guida's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Mac Danzig pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 030 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 141 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Clay Guida earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 43 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 106 | 108 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 171 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Clay Guida slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 43 vs 36 significant strikes. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 10 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 18 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:36 | 0:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 269 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +119 | -119 |
Clay Guida dominated Mac Danzig on the ground with 10 vs 1 takedowns, 8:36 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 151 |
| Activity ELO | 1 118 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -20 |
Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Mac Danzig's 151-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 043 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -23 |
Clay Guida extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mac Danzig is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 030 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.