August 24, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 003 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Clay Guida's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Marcus Aurelio pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 023 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Clay Guida receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 181 | 135 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 089 | 908 |
| ELO Change | +92 | -92 |
Clay Guida dominated the striking exchanges with 71 vs 47 total strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:26 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 133 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Clay Guida landed 2 knockdowns followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 049 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -22 |
Clay Guida demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Marcus Aurelio's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcus Aurelio is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.