August 20, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 31 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 28 | -28 |
| Experience ELO | 1 045 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +87 |
Mark Madsen overcame a 28-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 31 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Clay Guida.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 027 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 219 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Mark Madsen receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 72 | 98 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 212 | 192 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 72 | 101 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 130 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Mark Madsen controlled the striking exchanges with 101 vs 72 total strikes, 98 vs 72 significant strikes, 51.0% vs 34.0% accuracy. Mark Madsen capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 148 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Mark Madsen did not secure a significant ground advantage against Clay Guida on the ground with 0:54 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 196 | 532 |
| Activity ELO | 1 167 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +26 |
Mark Madsen demonstrated extended layoff with 532 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Mark Madsen capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 064 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +31 |
Mark Madsen extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 027 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.