February 5, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 30 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Clay Guida's 7-fight experience advantage (30 vs 23 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Michael Johnson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 048 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 233 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Clay Guida earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 126 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 65 | 70 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 162 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Michael Johnson controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (58 vs 49). However, since Michael Johnson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Clay Guida's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:53 | 3:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 171 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Clay Guida edged out Michael Johnson on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 6:53 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 232 | 270 |
| Activity ELO | 1 196 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -19 |
Clay Guida demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Johnson's 270-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 087 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 049 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.