Clay Guida vs Nate Diaz

Clay Guida's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Nate Diaz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Clay Guida receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Clay Guida slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 49.5% vs 36.3% accuracy. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.

Clay Guida dominated Nate Diaz on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 8:50 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.

Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 137 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Diaz's 137-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Clay Guida extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nate Diaz is back at 0 with this loss.

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.