April 14, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 35 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 28 | -28 |
| Experience ELO | 1 058 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +107 |
Rafa Garcia overcame a 28-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 35 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Clay Guida.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 029 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 187 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Rafa Garcia earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 141 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 252 | 287 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 63 | 143 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 073 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Rafa Garcia dominated the striking exchanges with 143 vs 63 total strikes, 141 vs 63 significant strikes, 49.1% vs 25.0% accuracy. Rafa Garcia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 234 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 179 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +71 |
Rafa Garcia demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafa Garcia capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 069 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +31 |
Rafa Garcia extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 029 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.