August 6, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 103 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Clay Guida's 6-fight experience advantage (12 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Rafael Dos Anjos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 062 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:51 | 1:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 240 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -38 |
Clay Guida earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:51, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Rafael Dos Anjos was submitted.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 90 | 64 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 208 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Clay Guida edged the striking exchanges. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:31 | 0:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 443 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -77 |
Clay Guida dominated Rafael Dos Anjos on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 4:31 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 139 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 214 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -19 |
Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 139 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Dos Anjos's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 092 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Clay Guida extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Dos Anjos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.