Clay Guida vs Roger Huerta

December 7, 2007

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1021
(-17)
Clay Guida
Winner: Roger Huerta
Submission
Round 3 • 0:51

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Clay Guida-17
Roger Huerta+23
1199
(+23)
Roger Huerta

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -21Roger Huerta: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaRoger Huerta
Total UFC Fights56
Experience Gap-11
Experience ELO9821 146
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -16Roger Huerta: +16

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaRoger Huerta
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9851 109
ELO Change-16+16
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -17Roger Huerta: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaRoger Huerta
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish0:510:51
Win Type ELO1 0061 283
ELO Change-17+26
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What Happened

Roger Huerta earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 0:51, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Clay Guida was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -11Roger Huerta: +11

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaRoger Huerta
Significant Strikes Landed4731
Significant Strikes Attempted85102
Total Strikes Landed10053
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 0781 270
ELO Change-11+11
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What Happened

Clay Guida controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (100 vs 53 total strikes), significant strike advantage (47 vs 31), superior accuracy (55.3% vs 30.4%), 1 knockdown. However, since Clay Guida lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Roger Huerta's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -27Roger Huerta: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaRoger Huerta
Takedowns Landed60
Takedowns Attempted110
Ground Control Time5:530:50
Ground Strikes Landed172
Ground ELO1 1061 290
ELO Change-27+27
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What Happened

Roger Huerta edged out Clay Guida on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:50 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -13Roger Huerta: +32

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaRoger Huerta
Days Since Last Fight106106
Activity ELO1 0361 224
ELO Change-13+32
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What Happened

Roger Huerta demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Roger Huerta capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 106-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -14Roger Huerta: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaRoger Huerta
Win Streak06
Win Streak ELO9921 157
ELO Change-14+34
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What Happened

Roger Huerta continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Clay Guida's now at 0.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: -16Roger Huerta: +16

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaRoger Huerta
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9851 109
ELO Change-16+16
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.