December 7, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 982 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:51 | 0:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 006 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +26 |
Roger Huerta earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 0:51, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Clay Guida was submitted.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 102 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 100 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 078 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Clay Guida controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (100 vs 53 total strikes), significant strike advantage (47 vs 31), superior accuracy (55.3% vs 30.4%), 1 knockdown. However, since Clay Guida lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Roger Huerta's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:53 | 0:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 106 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Roger Huerta edged out Clay Guida on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:50 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 106 |
| Activity ELO | 1 036 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +32 |
Roger Huerta demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Roger Huerta capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 106-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 992 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +34 |
Roger Huerta continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Clay Guida's now at 0.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

