April 1, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Samy Schiavo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 015 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Clay Guida's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Samy Schiavo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Samy Schiavo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 007 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Samy Schiavo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:15 | 4:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 095 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +89 | -41 |
Clay Guida earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Samy Schiavo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 22 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 149 | 929 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -71 |
Clay Guida edged the striking exchanges with 24 vs 4 total strikes, 11 vs 4 significant strikes, 42.3% vs 18.2% accuracy. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Samy Schiavo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:56 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 150 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Clay Guida controlled Samy Schiavo on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:56 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Samy Schiavo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 116 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 083 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -19 |
Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 116 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Samy Schiavo's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Samy Schiavo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 016 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -21 |
Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Samy Schiavo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Samy Schiavo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 007 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

