Clay Guida vs Samy Schiavo

April 1, 2008

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1065
(+44)
Clay Guida
Winner: Clay Guida
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 4:15

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Clay Guida+44
Samy Schiavo-34
966
(-34)
Samy Schiavo

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +33Samy Schiavo: -33

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaSamy Schiavo
Total UFC Fights61
Experience Gap5-5
Experience ELO1 015967
ELO Change+33-33
💡

What Happened

Clay Guida's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Samy Schiavo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +22Samy Schiavo: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaSamy Schiavo
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 007978
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +89Samy Schiavo: -41

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaSamy Schiavo
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:154:15
Win Type ELO1 095959
ELO Change+89-41
💡

What Happened

Clay Guida earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +71Samy Schiavo: -71

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaSamy Schiavo
Significant Strikes Landed114
Significant Strikes Attempted2622
Total Strikes Landed244
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 149929
ELO Change+71-71
💡

What Happened

Clay Guida edged the striking exchanges with 24 vs 4 total strikes, 11 vs 4 significant strikes, 42.3% vs 18.2% accuracy. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +44Samy Schiavo: -44

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaSamy Schiavo
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted10
Ground Control Time1:560:00
Ground Strikes Landed90
Ground ELO1 150956
ELO Change+44-44
💡

What Happened

Clay Guida controlled Samy Schiavo on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:56 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +47Samy Schiavo: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaSamy Schiavo
Days Since Last Fight116N/A
Activity ELO1 083981
ELO Change+47-19
💡

What Happened

Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 116 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Samy Schiavo's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +24Samy Schiavo: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaSamy Schiavo
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 016979
ELO Change+24-21
💡

What Happened

Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Samy Schiavo is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +22Samy Schiavo: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaSamy Schiavo
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 007978
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.