December 2, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 34 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 21 | -21 |
| Experience ELO | 1 095 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Clay Guida's 21-fight experience advantage (34 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Scott Holtzman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 053 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 247 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Clay Guida receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 66 | 65 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 183 | 166 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 95 | 77 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 126 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Clay Guida edged the striking exchanges. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 15 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:35 | 0:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 261 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -73 |
Clay Guida dominated Scott Holtzman on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 5:35 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 225 | 603 |
| Activity ELO | 1 207 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Clay Guida demonstrated standard activity with 225 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Scott Holtzman's 603-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 094 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Scott Holtzman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 053 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.