Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty

March 20, 2010

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1142
(+41)
Clay Guida
Winner: Clay Guida
Submission
Round 2 • 3:40

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Clay Guida+41
Shannon Gugerty-36
989
(-36)
Shannon Gugerty

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +27Shannon Gugerty: -27

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaShannon Gugerty
Total UFC Fights115
Experience Gap6-6
Experience ELO1 072966
ELO Change+27-27
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What Happened

Clay Guida's 6-fight experience advantage (11 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Shannon Gugerty pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +20Shannon Gugerty: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaShannon Gugerty
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 042982
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +51Shannon Gugerty: -33

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaShannon Gugerty
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish3:403:40
Win Type ELO1 1831 025
ELO Change+51-33
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What Happened

Clay Guida earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:40, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Shannon Gugerty was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +63Shannon Gugerty: -63

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaShannon Gugerty
Significant Strikes Landed141
Significant Strikes Attempted337
Total Strikes Landed726
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 186951
ELO Change+63-63
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What Happened

Clay Guida dominated the striking exchanges with 72 vs 6 total strikes, 14 vs 1 significant strikes, 42.4% vs 14.3% accuracy. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +93Shannon Gugerty: -93

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaShannon Gugerty
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted21
Ground Control Time7:280:02
Ground Strikes Landed121
Ground ELO1 3661 016
ELO Change+93-93
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What Happened

Clay Guida dominated Shannon Gugerty on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:28 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +34Shannon Gugerty: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaShannon Gugerty
Days Since Last Fight99127
Activity ELO1 1761 002
ELO Change+34-14
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What Happened

Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Shannon Gugerty's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +20Shannon Gugerty: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaShannon Gugerty
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 068989
ELO Change+20-19
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What Happened

Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shannon Gugerty is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Clay Guida: +20Shannon Gugerty: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricClay GuidaShannon Gugerty
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 043982
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.