March 20, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 072 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Clay Guida's 6-fight experience advantage (11 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Shannon Gugerty pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:40 | 3:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 183 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -33 |
Clay Guida earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:40, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Shannon Gugerty was submitted.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 72 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 186 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Clay Guida dominated the striking exchanges with 72 vs 6 total strikes, 14 vs 1 significant strikes, 42.4% vs 14.3% accuracy. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:28 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 366 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +93 | -93 |
Clay Guida dominated Shannon Gugerty on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:28 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 99 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 176 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -14 |
Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Shannon Gugerty's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -19 |
Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shannon Gugerty is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

