December 31, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 130 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Clay Guida's 10-fight experience advantage (13 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Takanori Gomi pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 080 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:27 | 4:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 290 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -32 |
Clay Guida earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:27, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Takanori Gomi was submitted.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 81 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 227 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Takanori Gomi lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Clay Guida's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:48 | 0:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 472 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Clay Guida dominated Takanori Gomi on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 1:48 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 238 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -12 |
Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Takanori Gomi's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 114 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
Clay Guida extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Takanori Gomi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 081 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.