November 6, 2015
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 087 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +50 |
Thiago Tavares overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (17 vs 22 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Clay Guida.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 052 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:39 | 0:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 178 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +98 |
Thiago Tavares locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:39 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 125 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Clay Guida lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Thiago Tavares's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:18 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 248 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 218 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 183 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +44 |
Thiago Tavares demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 218-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 090 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Thiago Tavares started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 052 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.