June 15, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Guida | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 987 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 013 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Tyson Griffin receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 65 | 87 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 997 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Tyson Griffin edged the striking exchanges with 50 vs 36 significant strikes. Tyson Griffin capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:51 | 1:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 20 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 1 088 | 984 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Tyson Griffin edged out Clay Guida on the ground with 2 takedowns, 1:49 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 142 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 983 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +43 |
Tyson Griffin demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tyson Griffin capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Guida's 142-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Tyson Griffin started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Guida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Guida | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.