September 16, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clay Harvison | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 997 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Clay Harvison | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 997 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clay Harvison | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:12 | 1:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 963 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +75 |
Seth Baczynski earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:12, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Clay Harvison was submitted.
| Metric | Clay Harvison | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 107 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 45 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 935 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -94 | +94 |
Seth Baczynski controlled the striking exchanges with 45 vs 18 total strikes, 41 vs 12 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Seth Baczynski capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clay Harvison | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 887 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -147 | +147 |
Seth Baczynski dominated Clay Harvison on the ground with 2:32 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Clay Harvison | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 455 |
| Activity ELO | 997 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +21 |
Seth Baczynski demonstrated extended layoff with 455 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Seth Baczynski capitalized on this activity level, while Clay Harvison's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clay Harvison | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 999 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Seth Baczynski started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clay Harvison is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clay Harvison | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 997 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

