February 17, 2023
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 061 | 916 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:13 | 3:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 063 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -38 |
Clayton Carpenter earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:13, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 034 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Juancamilo Ronderos controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (46 vs 3 total strikes), superior accuracy (14.3% vs 60.0%). However, since Juancamilo Ronderos lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Clayton Carpenter's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:19 | 1:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 037 | 925 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Clayton Carpenter edged out Juancamilo Ronderos on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:19 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 638 |
| Activity ELO | 1 020 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Clayton Carpenter demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Clayton Carpenter capitalized on this activity level, while Juancamilo Ronderos's 638-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 022 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Clayton Carpenter started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Juancamilo Ronderos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.