Clayton Carpenter vs Lucas Rocha

October 12, 2024

Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1076
(+41)
Clayton Carpenter
Winner: Clayton Carpenter
Submission
Round 2 • 2:12

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Clayton Carpenter+41
Lucas Rocha-38
962
(-38)
Lucas Rocha

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Clayton Carpenter: +26Lucas Rocha: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricClayton CarpenterLucas Rocha
Total UFC Fights21
Experience Gap1-1
Experience ELO1 087974
ELO Change+26-26
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Clayton Carpenter: +20Lucas Rocha: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricClayton CarpenterLucas Rocha
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 040980
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Clayton Carpenter: +53Lucas Rocha: -34

Performance Statistics

MetricClayton CarpenterLucas Rocha
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish2:122:12
Win Type ELO1 116966
ELO Change+53-34
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What Happened

Clayton Carpenter earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:12, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Lucas Rocha was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Clayton Carpenter: +34Lucas Rocha: -34

Performance Statistics

MetricClayton CarpenterLucas Rocha
Significant Strikes Landed3417
Significant Strikes Attempted6041
Total Strikes Landed3621
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 068966
ELO Change+34-34
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What Happened

Clayton Carpenter controlled the striking exchanges with 34 vs 17 significant strikes, 56.7% vs 41.5% accuracy. Clayton Carpenter capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Clayton Carpenter: +134Lucas Rocha: -134

Performance Statistics

MetricClayton CarpenterLucas Rocha
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted30
Ground Control Time4:380:00
Ground Strikes Landed130
Ground ELO1 171866
ELO Change+134-134
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What Happened

Clayton Carpenter dominated Lucas Rocha on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:38 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Clayton Carpenter: +18Lucas Rocha: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricClayton CarpenterLucas Rocha
Days Since Last Fight603N/A
Activity ELO1 038980
ELO Change+18-20
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What Happened

Clayton Carpenter demonstrated extended layoff with 603 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Clayton Carpenter capitalized on this activity level, while Lucas Rocha's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Clayton Carpenter: +24Lucas Rocha: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricClayton CarpenterLucas Rocha
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 046980
ELO Change+24-20
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What Happened

Clayton Carpenter extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucas Rocha is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Clayton Carpenter: +20Lucas Rocha: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricClayton CarpenterLucas Rocha
Weight ClassFlyweightFlyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 040980
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.