October 12, 2024
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Lucas Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 087 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Lucas Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Lucas Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:12 | 2:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 116 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -34 |
Clayton Carpenter earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:12, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Lucas Rocha was submitted.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Lucas Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 60 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 068 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Clayton Carpenter controlled the striking exchanges with 34 vs 17 significant strikes, 56.7% vs 41.5% accuracy. Clayton Carpenter capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Lucas Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:38 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 171 | 866 |
| ELO Change | +134 | -134 |
Clayton Carpenter dominated Lucas Rocha on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:38 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Lucas Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 603 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 038 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -20 |
Clayton Carpenter demonstrated extended layoff with 603 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Clayton Carpenter capitalized on this activity level, while Lucas Rocha's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Lucas Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Clayton Carpenter extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucas Rocha is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Lucas Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

